International horse ratings (below) for the 2011 $6m Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) overseas contingent seem to back the bookmakers’ view that Americain is best.
Many experts are tipping the 2011 Melbourne Cup will have an international first four finish.
This theory is well founded – especially with the French duo Americian and Dunaden at the head of 2011 Melbourne Cup betting
Luxbet have the 2010 Melbourne Cup winner Americain just $4 for a repeat and Dunaden $7.
Both horses are undefeated in Australia.
Americian from three starts in the southern hemisphere has won the 2010 Geelong and Melbourne Cup and the 2011 Moonee Valley Cup on October 22.
Dunaden won the 2011 Geelong Cup
How a horse travels to Australia and reacts to the change of climate is all important.
That’s why it is good for international horses to have a start in Australia prior to a Melbourne Cup.
In the past, international Melbourne Cup winners Media Puzzle (2002), Delta Blues (2006) and Americain in (2010) all had a run prior to the Cup.
The only exception was Vintage Crop who came straight from Ireland to win the 1993 Melbourne Cup.
Jukebox Jury, Luxbet $41, Drunken Sailor Luxbet $31 , Sahara SunLuxbet $151 and Bauer Luxbet $16 .
Cumani believes Bauer is the best of his four and the 2008 Melbourne Cup runner up seems to be back in good form having run an unlucky third to Dunaden in the Geelong Cup.
Cumani’s assessment of Bauer and his other horses differ to that of the international ratings (below) but it may be more down to the fact Bauer has a good turn of foot that he performs better in Australia.
Bauer is no certainly to gain a 2011 Melbourne Cup start being 29th in the order of entry.
Manighar and Drunken Sailor are handy but may lack the required turn of foot to win the 2011 Melbourne Cup.
There are major staying doubts on Sahara Sun and his run in the 2011 Bendigo Cup was poor – it would be no surprise if he didn’t take his place in the Melbourne Cup of 2011.
Red Cadeaux Luxbet $26 and Fox Hunt Luxbet $26 are considered wet trackers, the Godolphin pair Lost in the Moment Luxbet $41 and Modun Luxbet $31 are not highly regarded at all.
Tactics Luxbet $401 was once considered quite decent but has shown nothing in Australia.
Tanby Luxbet $51 has been serviceable but seems to lack the true class of a Melbourne Cup winner despite his gallant performance to win the 2011 Bendigo Cup.
And there seems nothing special about Brian Ellison’s duo Moyenne Corniche Luxbet $31 and Saptapadi Luxbet $101.
The Lloyd Williams runners At First Sight Luxbet $20, Midas Touch Luxbet $26 and Green Moon Luxbet $21 have all shown glimpses of true ability – it would not be strange for them to show their very best on 2011 Melbourne Cup day.
All Williams’ horses are racing better than the international ratings suggests.
German import Lucas Cranich Luxbet $ 8 was decent in the Caulfield Cup without gaining too many accolades.
A cracked heel problem wouldn’t be helping but being with five time Melbourne Cup winning trainer Lee Freedman doesn’t hurt.
We agree with the ratings and have Americain on top but then differ.
We then have Midas Touch, Dunaden, Green Moon, and Illo.
It seems Bart Cummings has already improved Illo on its European rating.
International ratings of the 2011 Melbourne Cup candidates at their best.
- 1. Americain – 125
- 2. Jukebox Jury, Midas Touch – 120
- 3. Tactics – 119
- 4. Drunken Sailor, Red Cadeaux, Manighar, Fox Hunt – 118
- 5. At First Sight, Dunaden 117
- 6. Bauer, Lost In The Moment 115
- 7. Green Moon 114
- 8. Saptapadi 113
- 9. Moyenne Corniche, Modun 110
- 10. Illo, Sahara Sun 109.
